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Weekly Forex News & Market Pulse

24 - 28 Nov.

This week, markets will react to key economic events from the US, New Zealand, Germany, and China. Focus will remain on US data and the RBNZ interest rate decision, which may drive sharp moves in major currencies. German inflation will guide the euro's direction, while low liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday could increase volatility. Overall, traders should expect mixed sentiment and quick price movements across forex, commodities, and crypto.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – Tuesday, Nov 25

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting will bring together top central bank officials, including the Governor and monetary policy members. They will discuss inflation, economic slowdown, and future interest rate plans. Traders will closely watch the statement tone for hints on possible rate cuts or stability.

Impact: NZD pairs may see sharp moves. A soft tone could weaken NZD, while a firm stance may support it.

US Retail Sales & PPI Release – Tuesday, Nov 25

These numbers will be closely followed by US policymakers, investors, and large financial institutions. The data will shape discussions around consumer demand and inflation pressure in the US. Analysts will use it to adjust expectations for future Federal Reserve actions.

Impact: Strong data could support the US dollar; weak numbers may pressure USD and boost gold.

US GDP & Key Economic Briefing – Wednesday, Nov 26

US government economists and policy advisers will review third-quarter economic performance. Market participants, including banks and hedge funds, will focus on how this data may influence the Federal Reserve’s next move. Discussions will also highlight whether the US economy is slowing or holding firm.

Impact: Positive signals may push USD higher; a cautious outlook could weaken the dollar.

US Core PCE Data Review – Wednesday, Nov 26

Federal Reserve officials and major market analysts will closely monitor this report. It will heavily influence upcoming policy discussions and future interest rate direction. Any surprise may quickly change market sentiment.

Impact: A higher reading may strengthen USD; softer data could support gold and pressure the dollar.

German CPI Release & ECB Outlook – Friday, Nov 28

German government officials and ECB-linked policymakers will assess inflation trends. This data will shape discussions on whether the European Central Bank should stay strict or ease its policy in the coming months.

Impact: Strong inflation can lift EUR; weak numbers may drag EUR lower.

Forex Market View

US Dollar (USD): Focus will stay on Retail Sales, PPI, GDP, and Core PCE data, along with low liquidity due to Thanksgiving. These releases will guide expectations around future Federal Reserve policy. Strong data → USD may rise, weak data → USD may fall, and gold may gain strength.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD): High volatility expected due to the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The central bank meeting will discuss inflation and future rate direction. Dovish tone → NZD may weaken, firm outlook → NZD may strengthen.

Euro (EUR): Movement will depend on German CPI data and its impact on ECB expectations. Higher inflation → EUR may rise, lower inflation → EUR may fall.

British Pound (GBP): No major high-impact data, but GBP may react to overall USD direction and market sentiment during the week. USD strength → GBP may weaken, USD weakness → GBP may recover.

Japanese Yen (JPY): Likely to remain weak as Japan’s recent economic momentum stays soft. Traders may continue favouring USD over JPY. USD/JPY may move higher if USD stays strong.

Gold (XAU): Could see sharp moves due to USD volatility and mixed US data. Weak USD → Gold may rise, strong USD → Gold may face selling pressure.

Key Pairs to Watch

USD/JPY, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD could see noticeable movements, especially during major US releases and the RBNZ decision.

Gold, Oil & Crypto Outlook

Gold: Movement will follow US data and dollar strength. Strong US numbers may lift USD and pressure gold, while weak data could support safe-haven demand. Strong USD → Gold may fall; weak USD → Gold may rise.

Oil: US Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday will be the main driver. Low liquidity may also cause quick price swings. Higher stock levels → Oil may fall; lower stocks → Oil may rise.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto will track overall risk sentiment and USD direction. No major crypto events this week. Strong USD → Crypto may face selling; weak USD → Crypto may see a slight recovery.

Trader’s Edge: Week Ahead Tips

  • Watch US Retail Sales, GDP, PPI and Core PCE; strong data may lift USD, weak data may push it down, especially with low liquidity due to Thanksgiving.
  • NZD may see sharp moves on the RBNZ interest rate decision; a dovish tone may weaken NZD, a firm stance may support it.
  • EUR reacts to German CPI; higher inflation may support EUR, soft data may pressure it.
  • JPY likely remains weak due to slow economic momentum; USD/JPY may move higher if USD stays firm.
  • Oil and CAD move with US Crude Oil Inventories; higher stocks may pressure oil, lower stocks may push it up.
  • Crypto follows risk sentiment and USD direction; a strong USD may trigger selling, a weak USD may support prices.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter provides market insights and expectations for the week ahead. These are predictions, not guarantees. Markets can change at any time due to new information or unexpected events. Always trade carefully and manage your risk.

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Weekly Newsletter 24-11-2025