Date: 09 May, Friday 2025
01 Key News Insights
Geopolitics
- The U.K. is set to impose new sanctions on up to 100 Russian oil tankers accused of helping Moscow evade existing energy export restrictions.
- Russia marks the Victory day Parade, attended by China’s Xi Jinping. Amid ongoing war, Moscow fears Ukraine may attempt to disrupt the event.
Global Markets
- European equity indices moved slightly higher on Friday, as the new U.S.-U.K. trade deal raised hopes it could pave the way for more agreements and help ease global trade tensions.
- China-based shipping agents have started booking container space again for U.S.-bound goods after earlier cancellations caused by U.S. tariffs, as trade talks between Beijing and Washington approach in Switzerland.
Crucial Data Today:
- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its May meeting, as expected. However, the decision showed a split within the Monetary Policy Committee, two preferring a 50 basis point reduction and two preferred no change.
- Canada’s April unemployment rate will be released today, with markets watching closely after March’s 6.7% print. The data could impact the Canadian dollar and shape expectations for future rate moves.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is forming a clear structure of higher highs on the 4-hour timeframe, with the MACD above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend. The break of the previous bearish structure suggests a potential reversal towards an upward direction.
- The USD reached a nearly one-month high on Friday, supported by the Fed’s hawkish pause and easing U.S. recession fears. USD bulls are now looking to speeches from key FOMC members for further momentum.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD has broken the strong 1.127 level with a powerful bearish engulfing candle, signaling weakness in the pair. It may continue to move lower after a potential pullback.
- Dollar flows strong ahead of a pending US-UK trade deal announcement, with investors hopeful for further tariff reductions. This has contributed to the rise in the dollar, which is likely driving the EUR/USD decline.
USD/JPY
- After a one-month correction, USD/JPY is finally attempting to break its structure, signaling bullish strength. It is forming a higher-high structure on the 4-hour timeframe and currently trading above the 55 EMA.
- Rising tensions in Asia are driving increased demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven currency, strengthening its position in global markets.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
1.Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2.By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3.That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4.In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5.Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold’s primary trend is bullish. However gold fell more than 120 points or ~3.5% in the previous two trading sessions. Minor recovery is observed today, but the corrective trend is expected to continue in gold which is trending within a descending channel formation. Immediate psychological support at 3300 will be crucial, below which 3285 (S1) could be witnessed.
Biasness: Gold turned bearish as USD gains strength. Gold started correcting amid hawkish Fed stance. Also optimism over a potential trade deal with Britain and progress in trade talks with China, reduces safe-haven demand for the metal.
Key Levels: R1- 3355 R2- 3415
S1- 32850 S2- 3225
Technical Analysis: Gold is trending below the middle Bollinger band and RSI also entered the selling zone, both supporting the bearish bias for gold.
Data Releases: No major economic data is scheduled for release today; however, a few speeches by FOMC members are expected, which could introduce some volatility into the market.
Alternative Scenario: If gold successfully fails to sustain the selling zone and rise above R1 along with the middle Bollinger band (3364.5), then it could move higher to retest the far resistance at 3415.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3327.4.
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Oil’s primary trend is bearish, but prices reversed from 55.25 support, forming higher highs. After bouncing from the 52 EMA, they breached resistance and are now above the pivot. Sustained movement above this level may indicate further bullishness ahead.
Biasness: Oil prices rose for a second session, with Brent at $63.27 and WTI at $60.33, driven by easing U.S.-China tensions, a U.S.-UK trade deal, and heightened India-Pakistan conflict, boosting sentiment ahead of upcoming trade talks and increased geopolitical risks.
Key Levels: R1: 59.75 R2:62.00
S1: 57.25 S2: 52.25
Indicator: The 12-period EMA is above of 52-period EMA indicating bullishness in prices.
Data Release: The Baker Hughes oil rig count is scheduled for release today. If the reported number exceeds 584, it could signal increased drilling activity, which may lead to a bearish impact on oil prices due to expectations of higher future supply.
Alternative Scenario: If oil falls below the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 12-period EMA crosses below the 52-period EMA, further bearishness could be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 60.01.
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The primary trend of USD/JPY remains bearish. However, on the 4H chart, prices are forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, they are testing the pivot level during a correction. If prices breach the immediate resistance post-correction, further bullishness could follow.
Biasness: The Japanese Yen extended its intraday gains into the European session, rebounding from a four-week low against the U.S. Dollar. The renewed upside is driven by rising geopolitical tensions, which have boosted safe-haven demand for the Yen.
Key Levels: R1: 146.00 R2: 148.20
S1: 144.00 S2: 140.20
Indicator: The 12-period EMA has crossed 52-period EMA above , indicating bullishness.
Macro-Economic Factors: No major economic data is scheduled for release today; however, a few speeches by FOMC members are expected, which could introduce some volatility into the market.
Alternative Scenario: If prices fail to hold above the resistance level and drop below the pivot, it would signal a potential shift toward bearish momentum.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 145.22.
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
