Date: 31st March, Monday 2025
01 Key News Insights
BRICS Nations Accelerate De-Dollarization with Gold-Backed and Commodity-Driven Currencies:
- BRICS nations are actively working to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance.
- Their efforts focus on alternative currency systems backed by gold, precious metals, and critical minerals.
Fresh Auto Tariffs Announced by President Trump:
- US president announced a 25% tariff set to take effect on April 2 on all cars shipped to the United States. –
- It is considered to be a significant escalation in a global trade war.
- Canada’s prime minister described it as a “direct attack” in violation of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement .
US risk premium drop may drive more cash to Europe:
- The gap between US and German 10-year bond yields is set for its biggest quarterly drop in years.
- Fiscal policy shifts on both sides of the Atlantic may draw more investment to Europe.
China’s Zhipu AI launches free agent, heating up tech race:
- Chinese AI startup Zhipu AI launched a free AI agent called AutoGLM Rumination, capable of deep research, web searches, travel planning, and report writing
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is trading around 104.30, holding above the 104.00 support level. It may rise toward 104.70 and 105.00 if the bullish trend continues.
- A break below 104.00 could lead to a decline toward 103.60, while a move above 105.00 could trigger further upside.
- Demand for the dollar remains strong due to uncertainty over Fed rate cuts. US PCE data and Fedspeak are in focus for further direction.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD is trading with slight gains but remains below the 1.0850 resistance level.
- The pair finds support from a weaker US Dollar, but buying momentum is limited.
- Traders await Germany’s preliminary inflation data and Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement for further direction.
USD/JPY
- The pair continues its downtrend below 149.00 in Asian trading.
- Hawkish BoJ bets and a risk-off mood boost the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
- Stagflation fears in the US weigh on the Dollar, adding to the pair’s decline.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
1.Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2.By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3.That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4.In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5.Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold’s primary trend remains bullish, with a trendline breakout signaling further upside potential. The ongoing rally suggests that prices are approaching 3150 but price could turn any direction so trader should cautious while taking trades but if resistance 3150 breaks so bullishness is expected.
Biasness: Gold price stretches its record-setting rally toward $3,150 in European trading on Monday. The bullion continues to capitalize on safe-haven flows amid intensifying global tariff war fears.
Key Levels: R1- 3125 R2- 3150
S1- 3100 S2- 3090
Technical Analysis: The RSI turning upward above 80, while the 50 EMA remains bullish, indicating strength in price. If candle closes above the resistance 3150 so it will strengthen bullish biasness.
Data Releases: PMI is due for the day 45.5 reading is expected If it comes below so gold price more bullish.
Alternative Scenario: If gold price moves down or break the support level at 3100 then bearishness can be expected.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3122
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: The major trend of Oil is Bearish. On the 1-hour chart, Oil has formed a double bottom reversal pattern around 68.50 level which was also a previous support. If oil breaches the level of 69.50 then it may head for 70.00 level.
Biasness: Oil prices went up on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he might add extra tariffs on countries buying Russian oil if he believes Moscow is blocking his efforts to stop the Ukraine war.
Key Levels: R1: 70.00 R2: 71.00
S1: 68.50 S2: 67.50
Indicator: Oil prices are trading around the middle Bollinger band at 69.00, a breach of this level may strengthen oil prices.
Data Release: There is no major data to impact oil prices today.
Alternative Scenario: If Oil breaches an immediate support mark of 68.50 and trade below the middle Bollinger band, then a short term bearish view can be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 69.00
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting a bearish primary trend. On the 4-hour chart, prices are approaching the immediate support at 148.03. And if prices breach this support then further bearishness can be expected in the pair.
Biasness: USD/JPY extends losses below 149.00 in Monday’s Asian trading. Hawkish BoJ expectations and heightening risk-off mood amid escalating tensions underpin the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Moreover, fears of stagflation in the US keep the US Dollar undermined, adding to the pair’s downslide.
Key Levels: R1: 150.03 R2: 150.75
S1: 148.03 S2: 146.99
Indicator: The prices are below the lower Bollinger band indicating bearishness in the pair.
Macro-Economic Factors: Traders are waiting for US Chicago PMI. If the data comes out to be less than expected then it will be bearish for USD as well as USDJPY pair.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the resistance at 150.03 then bullishness is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 148.75
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
