Date: 23 May, Friday 2025
01 Key News Insights
Geopolitics
- Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba held phone call with U.S. President Trump, discussing tariffs, diplomacy, and security.
- Former Ukrainian military chief stated that Ukraine should move beyond hopes of restoring its 1991 or even 2022 borders, citing Russia’s continued military strength.
Global Markets
- Asian stocks edged higher Friday, led by Japan, as easing U.S. Treasury yields offset inflation concerns. Chinese markets outperformed on optimism over U.S. tariff relief and potential Beijing stimulus.
- BYD’s Hong Kong shares hit a record high after surpassing Tesla in April EV sales in Europe, marking a key milestone. Strong exports and bullish outlook from Citi also boosted sentiment.
Crucial Data Today:
- Canadian retail sales data is due today and forecasted to be stronger than the previous release, which could support the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. new home sales are expected to come in slightly weaker, potentially weighing on the U.S. Dollar.
- U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count at 10 PM IST is forecasted lower, potentially lowering crude prices and impacting CAD negatively due to its oil export linkage.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- The Dollar Index is in a short-term bearish trend, forming lower lows and trading below key short-term moving averages.It is currently fluctuating between the 98.5 and 100 levels, showing continued downside pressure.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) slips toward two-week lows, trading near 99.60 amid sustained pressure. The decline follows a drop in the 30-year US Treasury yield to 5.05% from the previous session’s 5.15% peak.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD continues its downtrend, sliding to around 1.3825 after retesting strong resistance near 1.3900, with support near 1.3780 likely to slow declines.The pair trades below short-term moving averages, and MACD shows a bearish crossover, signaling further weakness.
- USD/CAD has fallen to pre-election levels amid US policy shifts, with UBS expecting Canada’s trade efforts and Bank of Canada’s monetary stance to strengthen the CAD.UBS sets a long-term USD/CAD target of 1.34 for June 2026.
USD/CAD
- EUR/USD strengthens above 1.1300 in Friday’s European session as US Dollar weakens. Concerns over US fiscal health following the House’s approval of Trump’s tax bill support the Euro’s gains.
- EUR/USD climbed above 1.1300 ahead of Germany’s Q1 GDP release but saw a slight correction afterward.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
1.Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2.By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3.That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4.In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5.Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Although gold’s primary trend remains bearish, it is forming higher highs on the 4H timeframe. A strong and decisive breakout above $3345 and the descending trendline could signal a shift toward a more bullish outlook.
Biasness: Gold prices climbed on Friday, heading for a strong weekly gain as safe haven demand rose due to U.S. debt concerns, Treasury sell-off, geopolitical tensions, and Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Key Levels: R1- 3345 R2- 3415
S1- 3275 S2- 3210
Technical Analysis: Currently, gold is trading above its short-term moving averages, indicating near-term strength. A bullish MACD crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line, further supports the potential for continued upward momentum.
Data Releases: Today’s U.S. New Home Sales data is expected to be weak, which could pressure the U.S. Dollar lower. A softer dollar typically supports gold prices, potentially pushing gold further into bullish territory.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold fall below the crucial support level of 3275, it could signal short-term bearishness.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3331.
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: The primary trend of oil is bearish. On the 4H chart, prices are forming lower highs and lower lows after failing to breach the key resistance at 63.50. Currently in correction, a break below immediate support may extend the downtrend. The 12-period EMA remains below the 52-period EMA, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Biasness: Oil prices declined for a fourth straight session on Friday, with Brent at $64.13 and WTI at $60.87. Both benchmarks are heading for weekly losses amid concerns over potential OPEC+ output hikes and ongoing oversupply fears.
Key Levels: R1: 62.00 R2:63.50
S1: 60.50 S2:59.50
Indicator: The 12-period EMA has crossed below 52-period EMA indicating bearishness in prices.
Data Release: Baker Hughes’ total oil rig count data is set to be released today. If the figure comes in below 576, it would indicate a decline in drilling activity and could be bearish for oil prices.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil rises above the pivot level then bullishness can be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 60.50.
07 - EUR USD
Overview: The primary trend of EUR/USD is bullish. On the 4H chart, prices are forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, they are correcting in order to test the pivot level. If sustains above it then further bullish momentum can be seen.
Biasness: EUR/USD gains traction in the European session on Friday and trades above 1.1300. Growing concerns about the US fiscal outlook and government debt after the US House of Representatives passed President Trump’s tax bill weigh on the US Dollar and help the pair push higher.
Key Levels: R1: 1.1380 R2: 1.1430
S1: 1.1280 S2: 1.1220
Indicator: 12 period EMA is above of 52 period EMA indicating bullishness.
Data Release: New home sales data is set to be release today, if it came out to be less than 724K as expected then the pair may continue to rise higher.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the support of 1.1280 then bearish move is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1315.
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
