Daily Research Report: Get Today's Gold, Crude Oil & Forex Analysis

01 Key News Insights

Date: 16th February, Monday, 2026

Daily Digest

01 - Instructions/ Guidelines for Executing Suggested Trades

Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.

2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.

3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.

4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.

5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:

a. For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.

b. Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.

c. To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.

Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.

02 - Economic Calender

03 - Previous Day Performance

04 - Gold Analysis

Overview: Gold is trading nearly 1% lower in the Asian session, consolidating within a 4,850–5,050 range. The overall bias remains bearish, with a potential liquidity sweep toward the 4,700 level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI around 48 and price holding below the 50 EMA indicate short-term weakness. However, a sustained close above 5,050 could open the door for an upside move toward the 5,115 area.

Biasness: Gold prices fell below key levels in Asian trade on Monday, while silver fell sharply amid continued uncertainty over U.S. interest rates, especially following mixed consumer inflation data.

Key Levels:
R1- 5119 R2- 5454

S1- 4657 S2- 4403

Data Releases: With no major U.S. data scheduled due to the U.S. market holiday, overall activity may remain subdued; however, remarks from FOMC Member Bowman could still introduce volatility in gold prices during the New York session.

Technical Analysis: The price is holding below 50 EMA on the 4H timeframe, with the EMA slope trending downward, indicating a bearish bias.

Alternative Scenario: If prices starts to close above 50 EMA on 4H timeframe & closes above 5050 then we can plan long entries.

While writing the report, gold is trading at 4987.

05 - Crude Oil

Overview: The primary trend in oil is bullish. On the 4H chart, the prices have breached the symmetrical triangle pattern on the lower side with strong momentum. The prices are currently resting in the lower zone of iFVG and expected to rise higher with immediate hurdle at the inside immediate FVG between 62.90 and 63.80.

Biasness: Crude Oil prices remain under pressure amid ongoing concerns about oversupply. Although some recovery could be witnessed on deescalating tensions between Iran & USA. Trump recently said that we have to make a deal with Iran.

Key Levels:
R1: 62.90        R2: 63.80
S1: 62.15         S2: 61.00

Data Releases: Today’s U.S. data releases—including Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y—are likely to generate heightened volatility in oil prices during the New York session.

Technical Analysis: RSI is recovering from the oversold zone, and might rise to test the 9EMA.

Alternative Scenario: Only a sustainable breakout and closing of 4H candle below the immediate support S1 (62.15) might drive oil prices lower to far support zone.

While writing the report, the pair is trending at 62.65

06 - EUR/USD

Overview: The broader trend in EURUSD remains bearish. EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure after failing to break above the 1.1960 resistance area. Price is forming lower highs and recently slipped below the short-term rising channel, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a shift toward a corrective move lower.

Biasness European earnings are improving, which slightly supports the Euro, but high valuations and cautious investor reaction limit strong upside. A strong Euro is already a headwind for exporters, so overall impact on EUR/USD is neutral to slightly bearish unless growth clearly accelerates.

Key Levels:
R1: 1.1890 R2: 1.1960

S1: 1.1770 S2: 1.1690

Data Release: There are no major scheduled economic events today impacting EUR/USD.

Technical Analysis: Price is breaking below the short-term rising channel and trading near the mid to lower Bollinger Band, indicating increasing selling pressure. Moving averages are flattening, suggesting loss of bullish momentum. RSI is drifting lower and forming a minor bearish divergence, which supports further downside potential toward 1.1770 initially.

Alternative Scenario: A sustained move above 1.1960 would invalidate the bearish structure and shift momentum back toward the upside.

While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1870.

07 - BTC/USD

Overview: BTCUSD remains under short-term bearish pressure after rejecting the $69,800–$70,950 resistance zone (R1). Price has failed to sustain upside momentum within the supply area and is now rotating lower toward S1 ($65,650). The broader structure remains corrective below the higher resistance band, reinforcing the near-term bearish tone. Unless price reclaims $70,950 decisively, rallies are likely to face supply pressure and limited upside follow-through toward R2 ($72,850).

Biasness: The near-term bias remains neutral-to-bearish, with price respecting the overhead supply zone and forming lower highs within the consolidation range.

Key Levels:
R1 : 70,950 R2 : 72,850

S1 : 65,650 S2 : 62,750

Data Release: There is no major high-impact macroeconomic data scheduled in the immediate session. This suggests price action is likely to be technically driven, with market participants reacting primarily to projected supply and demand zones rather than macro catalysts.

Technical Analysis. BTC is showing rejection momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI stabilizing near mid-levels, suggesting consolidation rather than trend expansion. Following the projected arrow path, price is likely to rotate lower toward S1 ($65,650), where demand reaction may emerge again.

Alternative Scenario :If BTC successfully breaks and holds above $71,950, bullish momentum may strengthen. A confirmed acceptance above this level would shift structure toward upside continuation, opening the path toward R2 ($72,850) and higher resistance clusters.

While writing the report, the pair is trending at 68,340.

08 - DOW JONES

Overview: The primary trend of the Dow Jones remains bullish. On the 4H chart, prices were consolidating between 50,500 and 49,900 but broke below the range yesterday. Currently trading under the pivot level, a brief correction may occur before further downside movement.

Biasness: The Dow Jones fell sharply as tech-led sell-offs and AI fears weighed on markets, dragging major U.S. indices lower. Investors are cautious ahead of key economic data and inflation reports that could influence Fed policy.

Key Levels:
R1: 49650 R2: 50500

S1: 49000 S2: 48650

Data Release Today’s CPI data is scheduled for release. If inflation comes in higher than the previous reading, it may dampen rate-cut expectations, strengthen bond yields, and trigger further bearish pressure in Dow Jones prices amid tighter monetary policy concerns.

Technical Analysis: 12 period EMA is below of 52 period EMA , indicating bearishness in prices.

Alternative Scenario: If prices are able to breach the immediate resistance level and if 12 period EMA crosses above 52 period then further bullishness can be seen.

While writing the report, the pair is trending at 49323.

10 - Disclaimer

CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.

Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd