Date: 03 April, Thursday 2025
01 Key News Insights
Trump’s Tariffs Hit Harder Than Expected, Raising Recession Fears:
- Analysts warn that Trump’s sweeping tariffs could increase the risk of a U.S. and global recession.
- A 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and additional duties on select countries were announced Wednesday.
EU Prepares Countermeasures Against New US Tariffs, Says Chief:
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calls Trump’s tariffs a major blow to the world economy.
- She confirms the EU is finalizing its first set of countermeasures if talks with Washington fail.
Market Signals Flashing Recession Warning in the US:
- In the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has plunged 65 basis points, marking a dramatic shift (Rates falling).
- Meanwhile, 1-month and 3-month annualized inflation have risen more than 4%+, signaling rising trouble (Inflation rising).
Australia Calls US Tariffs ‘Not a Friend’s Act’ but Won’t Retaliate:
- PM Anthony Albanese calls Trump’s 10% tariff on allies “not the act of a friend.”
- Despite the tariffs, Australia rules out reciprocal measures, even as Trump targets booming Australian beef exports.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- The DXY is stabilizing above the 103.20 support level after recovering from its March lows.
- The index faces immediate resistance at 104.00. A break above this level could signal further upside potential.
- Investor caution prevails due to ongoing trade tensions and recent weak U.S. economic data, contributing to the DXY’s current consolidation phase.
EUR/USD
- The pair gains as the US Dollar weakens due to Trump’s tariff plans.
- Fears of an escalating trade war keep further upside in check.
- Investors watch for possible EU tariffs, which could impact market sentiment.
USD/JPY
- The pair hits a three-week low as the Japanese Yen strengthens.
- New trade tariffs increase demand for the Yen, weighing on USD/JPY.
- Concerns over the economy push the US Dollar toward its March low.
GBP/USD
- The pair gains as the US Dollar hits a fresh year-to-date low.
- Fears of a tariff-driven US slowdown boost Fed rate cut expectations, weakening the dollar.
- A move beyond a multi-week range suggests potential for further gains in GBP/USD.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
1.Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2.By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3.That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4.In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5.Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold’s primary trend remains bullish, after the new high 3167 price turned bearish and currently trading at support 3130 breakout below the support could strengthen bearish biasness and bearish divergence suggest price may suffer bearishness in upcoming days.
Biasness: Gold price rallies to an all-time peak amid heightened safe-haven demand on the back of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The USD hits a fresh YTD low amid slumping US bond yields and Fed rate cut bets, further supporting the precious metal.
Key Levels: R1- 3160 R2- 3170
S1- 3130 S2- 3100
Technical Analysis: The RSI turning downward below 80, while the 50 EMA remains bullish, indicating strength in price. If candle closes below the support 3100 so it will strengthen bearish biasness.
Data Releases: Initial jobless claims is due for the day 225k reading is expected if figure comes positive so USD getting strong and gold price might be weak.
Alternative Scenario: If gold price moves up or break the resistance level at 3150 then bullishness can be expected.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3128
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: The major trend of Oil is Bearish. On the 4-hour chart, Oil has formed a double top reversal pattern around 71.50 and breached the neckline at 70.00. Prices are expected to fall to the level of 68.50.
Biasness: Oil prices dropped by up to 3% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced big new tariffs. Investors are worried that this could lead to a global trade war, slowing down the economy and reducing the need for fuel.
Key Levels: R1: 70.00 R2: 71.50
S1: 68.50 S2: 67.50
Indicator: Oil prices are trading below the middle Bollinger band at 70.55, indicating weakness.
Data Release: Traders are waiting for the Initial Jobless Claims data. If the figure comes in less than expected(224k), then USD may be positively impacted and oil prices may fall.
Alternative Scenario: If Oil breaches an immediate resistance mark of 70.00 and trade above the middle Bollinger band, then a short term bullish view can be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 69.25
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting a bearish primary trend. On the 4-hour chart, prices have shown a bearish rally because of the tariffs announcement. Therefore, bearishness is expected in the pair till immediate support.
Biasness: USD/JPY stays defensive below 150.00 in Wednesday’s Asian trading as traders turn cautious ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. A cautious market mood and BoJ Ueda’s comments underpin the Japanese Yen, keeping the pair under pressure amid a subdued US Dollar.
Key Levels: R1: 150.03 R2: 149.02
S1: 149.02 S2: 148.03
Indicator: Prices are below Lower Bollinger band. Traders should remain cautious and wait for prices to go above lower Bollinger band to confirm bullishness otherwise pair will go further bearish.
Macro-Economic Factors: Traders are waiting for US Factory orders and ADP non farm employment change. If the data comes less than expected then it will be bearish for USD as well as USDJPY pair.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the resistance at 150.03 then bullishness is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 146.90
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
