Weekly Forex News & Market Pulse

This week’s forex market outlook (Feb 9–13, 2026) is expected to remain highly volatile as traders focus on major US economic data, including Retail Sales, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Jobless Claims, and US CPI inflation. These high-impact events will drive the USD direction, gold price movement, and overall risk sentiment. GBP traders will also watch the UK GDP report closely. Expect strong price action across EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, and crypto markets.

US Retail Sales Report Forecast: Key Event for USD and Gold Traders

The US Retail Sales report shows how strong consumer spending is, which directly impacts economic growth and inflation expectations. Traders watch this data to judge if the US economy is slowing down or staying strong. A surprise number can move the dollar sharply.

Impact:
Stronger retail sales support USD strength and push EURUSD and GBPUSD lower. Weak retail data may boost gold and weaken the dollar.

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report: Biggest Midweek Forex Market Mover

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is one of the most important releases for forex traders. It measures job growth and shows how strong the US labour market is. Markets also react to wage growth and unemployment rate, making this a major volatility event.

Impact:
Strong NFP usually strengthens the USD and pushes gold lower. Weak NFP can trigger USD selling and sharp rallies in EURUSD and GBPUSD.

US Unemployment Rate and Wage Data: Inflation and Fed Expectations in Focus

Along with NFP, traders focus on the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Wage growth is a strong inflation signal, and unemployment shows economic stability. These numbers heavily influence Federal Reserve expectations and can shift market sentiment within seconds after release.

Impact:
Higher wages or lower unemployment supports USD strength. Rising unemployment or weak wage growth may weaken the USD and support gold and risk assets.

UK GDP Report Preview: High Volatility Expected for GBPUSD and EURGBP

The UK GDP report is the most important UK economic release this week. It shows whether the UK economy is growing or slowing. A strong GDP can support the British pound and improve confidence. Weak GDP may increase recession fears and push GBP lower.

Impact:
Better GDP data can push GBPUSD higher and EURGBP lower. Weak GDP may trigger heavy pound selling and strong volatility during the London session.

US Jobless Claims Forecast: Traders Watch Labour Market Strength Before CPI

US Initial Jobless Claims is a weekly labour market indicator that often shapes short-term USD sentiment. Since it comes right before CPI, traders use it as a signal of economic strength. Any unexpected rise can raise slowdown fears and shift market positioning.

Impact:
Lower jobless claim supports the USD and bond yields. Higher claims can weaken the USD and support gold, especially if markets turn risk-off.

US CPI Inflation Data Forecast: The Biggest USD Catalyst of the Week

The US CPI report is the most important event of the week for forex and gold traders. It shows inflation trends and strongly impacts Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Markets react aggressively when CPI comes above or below forecasts, making it a major volatility trigger.

Impact:
Higher CPI strengthens the USD and pushes gold down. Lower CPI weakens USD and supports EURUSD, GBPUSD, and a strong rally in gold.

US Core CPI Report: Traders Track Real Inflation Pressure Behind CPI

Core CPI removes food and energy prices, giving a clearer view of long-term inflation pressure. This is the inflation metric the Fed watches closely. If Core CPI remains sticky or higher than expected, markets may price in higher interest rates for longer.

Impact:
Higher Core CPI is bullish for USD and bearish for gold. Lower Core CPI supports risk-on sentiment and can trigger USD weakness.

Fed Speeches This Week: Surprise Comments Could Move USD Without Warning

Federal Reserve speeches can move markets even without major data releases. Traders listen closely for hints about future rate cuts or inflation concerns. Any hawkish or dovish tone can shift bond yields and quickly impact USD strength, especially during New York trading hours.

Impact:
Hawkish Fed comments support USD strength and pressure gold. Dovish signals weaken the USD and can lift EURUSD and GBPUSD sharply.

Forex Market View

USD (US Dollar)
US dollar sentiment may remain highly volatile as markets react to Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, Jobless Claims, and CPI inflation data. Strong jobs and higher inflation could boost USD strength through rising yield expectations, while weaker prints may increase rate-cut bets and pressure the dollar.

EUR (Euro)
Euro sentiment may stay cautious as the EURUSD direction will mainly depend on US inflation and labour market outcomes. With limited major Eurozone catalysts, the euro is expected to follow dollar momentum. Softer US CPI could support EUR gains, while strong US data may trigger renewed EUR weakness.

GBP (British Pound)
British pound sentiment may remain volatile as traders focus on the UK GDP release and broader USD movement. Strong GDP data could support GBP buying and stabilise GBPUSD. However, weak growth numbers combined with strong US CPI or NFP may lead to sharp downside pressure on the pound.

AUD (Australian Dollar)
Australian dollar sentiment may stay sensitive to global risk sentiment, especially around major US data like CPI and NFP. A risk-on environment and a weaker USD could support AUD strength. However, stronger US inflation or rising bond yields may pressure AUD as markets shift toward safe-haven flows.

JPY (Japanese Yen)
Japanese yen sentiment may strengthen during risk-off market conditions, especially if US CPI or NFP creates volatility and uncertainty. However, if US yields rise sharply after strong inflation or jobs data, USDJPY may remain supported, limiting yen strength despite safe-haven demand.

CHF (Swiss Franc)
Swiss franc sentiment may remain supported as markets prepare for high-impact US releases, especially CPI and jobs data. Risk-off flows could favour CHF if volatility rises. However, strong USD momentum from inflation surprises may limit CHF upside against the dollar during the week.

CAD (Canadian Dollar)
Canadian dollar sentiment may fluctuate as traders monitor US data-driven USD moves and crude oil inventory updates. Rising oil prices could support CAD strength, while weaker oil demand or higher inventories may pressure CAD. Overall, US CPI and risk sentiment will remain key drivers.

NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
New Zealand dollar sentiment may remain mixed due to limited domestic catalysts. NZD movement will likely be driven by global risk sentiment and the US dollar direction. Softer US CPI and weaker jobs data could support NZD upside, while strong US inflation may trigger NZD weakness.

Gold, Oil & Crypto Outlook

Gold Outlook
Gold prices may remain highly volatile this week as traders react to major US releases, including Retail Sales, Non-Farm Payrolls, Jobless Claims, and CPI inflation data. Strong inflation or jobs numbers could lift bond yields and pressure gold, while softer data may boost safe-haven demand and support upside moves.

Oil Outlook
Crude oil prices may stay sensitive as markets monitor US crude oil inventories, global demand expectations, and overall risk sentiment. Falling inventories or supply concerns could support oil prices, while weaker economic outlook signals from US data may cap gains and trigger pullbacks in energy markets.

Crypto Outlook
Crypto markets may trade with heightened volatility as risk sentiment shifts around key US economic releases, especially CPI and labour market data. A stronger USD and rising yields could pressure Bitcoin and altcoins, while softer inflation and weaker US numbers may improve risk appetite and support a short-term recovery.

Trader’s Edge: Week Ahead Trading Tips

• Focus on CPI as the Week’s Main Trigger: US CPI and Core CPI are the biggest volatility drivers this week. Expect sharp moves in USD pairs, gold, and indices after the release.
• NFP Day = High Volatility Zone: Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data can create fast breakouts and reversals. Avoid early entries and wait for confirmation.
• Retail Sales Can Set the Weekly Tone: Strong US Retail Sales may support USD momentum early in the week, while weak data could shift the market into risk-on mode.
• Watch Bond Yields Before and After Data: Rising US yields usually support USD and pressure gold. Falling yields often signal USD weakness and support risk assets.
• Trade the Reaction, Not the Forecast: Market moves depend on surprise vs expectations. Wait for the first 5 –15 minutes of price action to confirm direction.
• GBP Traders: UK GDP is Your Key Event: UK GDP will be the main driver for GBPUSD and EURGBP. Expect strong volatility during the London session.
• Gold Traders: CPI and NFP Decide Direction: Strong US inflation or jobs data can trigger heavy gold selling. Softer numbers may support a strong upside rally.
• Crypto Traders: USD Strength Matters Most: If USD strengthens after CPI or NFP, crypto may face pressure. Weak USD may trigger short-term recovery moves.
• Expect Stop Hunts Around High Impact Releases: Big news events often trigger liquidity grabs before the real move begins. Keep stops smarter and avoid chasing spikes.
• Risk Management is the Real Strategy This Week: With multiple high-impact US events, reduce lot size, avoid overtrading, and protect capital during high volatility sessions.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter shares market insights and expectations for the week ahead. These are forecasts, not guarantees. Market conditions can change rapidly due to new data or unexpected events. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.