Weekly Forex News & Market Pulse
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Weekly Forex News & Market Pulse

24 – 28 Nov.

This week, the forex market was influenced by mixed global news. US spending worries, changing US-China relations, gold price movement, and unstable stock markets affected major currency pairs. Traders saw frequent ups and downs with no clear trend, as the market reacted quickly to every new headline and shift in sentiment.

• US Deficit Bomb: Record $284 Billion Sparks Dollar Fear

The US government recorded a massive $284 billion budget deficit in October, the worst start to any fiscal year in history. Spending jumped sharply while debt costs stayed high, raising serious concerns about long-term US financial stability and printing pressure. Traders now see rising risk in America’s growing fiscal imbalance.

Impact: This raised long-term pressure on the US dollar. While yields stayed high short term, traders became cautious, limiting strong dollar rallies and supporting EUR/USD and GBP/USD on dips.

• Trump & Xi Peace Talk: Trade War Tension Finally Cooling?

President Trump confirmed a “very good call” with China’s President Xi and announced a visit in April. Both leaders agreed to communicate more often, signalling reduced trade war intensity. Markets welcomed this as a softening of US-China tensions and a step toward economic cooperation.

Impact: Improved sentiment weakened safe-haven demand for the dollar and yen. Risk currencies like AUD and GBP gained mild support as traders priced in reduced geopolitical and trade stress.

• Taiwan Crisis Avoided? Trump Tells Japan To Stay Quiet

Trump reportedly urged Japan’s Prime Minister to reduce strong statements on Taiwan to avoid provoking China. This move helped cool regional tensions and prevented escalation risks. Markets viewed this as de-escalation, calming fears of a sudden geopolitical shock in Asia.

Impact: With lower war risk, demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven weakened. USD/JPY stayed supported and avoided sharp downside pressure.

• China Secretly Buying Huge Gold? Quiet Move Against The Dollar

Goldman Sachs revealed China may be buying ten times more gold than its official data shows. While China reports small monthly purchases, actual accumulation could exceed 200 tonnes annually. This signals silent de-dollarisation and strengthens gold’s long-term safe-haven appeal.

Impact: This created underlying pressure on the US dollar and supported gold prices. Traders now see gold as a hedge against future US currency weakness.

• Gold at Breaking Point: $5,000 Rally or Massive Crash Ahead

Gold is testing a resistance structure that has held for more than 30 years. Technical indicators show overbought conditions, raising fear of a correction, but a breakout could trigger a powerful move toward $5,000 levels. Markets see this as a critical decision zone.

Impact: Gold hesitation kept forex traders cautious. A breakout may weaken the dollar further, while rejection could trigger temporary USD strength and risk-off flows.

• AI Bubble Panic Shocks Markets, Then Sudden Recovery

Headlines claiming an “AI bubble burst” triggered panic selling, wiping over $2 trillion from the S&P 500. Just days later, markets rebounded sharply, recovering $2.6 trillion. This dramatic shift exposed fragile sentiment and emotional trading across global markets.

Impact: This caused sharp swings in forex. Safe-haven demand boosted the dollar initially, then weakened it during recovery, keeping major pairs stuck in volatile ranges.

• Meta Drops Nvidia? AI Chip War Sends Shockwaves

Meta is considering Google’s AI chips instead of Nvidia and AMD, shaking the semiconductor sector. Nvidia and AMD shares plunged sharply, creating fear of a changing AI power balance. This sparked broader tech weakness and increased risk uncertainty.

Impact: This triggered short-term risk-off sentiment, strengthening the dollar and yen while pressuring GBP, AUD and other risk currencies.

• Gold & Silver Ready to Explode? Powerful Bullish Patterns Forming

Gold formed a bullish pennant while silver completed a Cup & Handle pattern, both strong continuation signals. These patterns suggest possible upside breakouts if resistance breaks. Traders see precious metals as getting ready for another strong push higher.

Impact: Strong metals support the weakening of the dollar narrative and boost commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD if risk sentiment remains stable.

Major Currency Pair Movements

EUR/USD: Moved sideways as the US dollar lacked a strong direction. Budget concerns and steady gold prices supported the euro, but weak risk confidence limited strong upside.

GBP/USD: Stayed range-bound with small upward moves during positive market sentiment. Lack of strong momentum kept the pair in consolidation.

USD/JPY: Remained firm as reduced geopolitical tension softened yen demand. Safe-haven flows stayed limited, keeping the pair supported.

USD/CHF: Traded stably with low volatility as global risk fear cooled, reducing strong Swiss franc buying.

Gold (XAU/USD): Gold held near a key resistance level. Central bank buying and global uncertainty kept prices supported, making gold a strong influence on overall forex market sentiment.

Trader’s Takeaway

  • Forex market volatility stayed high as US dollar uncertainty and shifting risk sentiment controlled major currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
  • The US dollar remains unclear, making sudden price reversals likely next week.
  • Gold and silver movements are key indicators of future dollar weakness or strength.
  • Geopolitical and US-China news can trigger fast forex spikes, especially in USD/JPY.
  • Smart traders should prioritise risk management, trade with the trend, and avoid emotional decisions.

What To Watch Next Week

  • US Dollar Direction: Rising US deficits and interest rate expectations will guide the dollar. Strong US data may lift USD, while weak data can push EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher.
  • US–China Headlines: Any fresh news on Trump and China can shift the market mood. Positive updates support risk currencies, while negative news boosts safe havens like USD and JPY.
  • Gold & Silver Movement: A breakout in gold or silver could signal pressure on the dollar and support commodity-linked currencies.
  • Stock Market Sentiment: If global stocks fall, traders may shift to safer currencies. If stocks rise, risk currencies may gain.
  • USD/JPY Watch: Geopolitical news from Asia can trigger sudden yen moves. Expect volatility in this pair.

Summary

This week showed how fast the forex market can change. From US spending worries to calming China tensions and unstable tech stocks, every headline affected currency movement. Gold and silver are also giving important signals, so traders should stay patient and avoid emotional decisions. Focus on clear setups, manage risk wisely, and remember — slow, disciplined trading always wins in the long run.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter shares market analysis and a weekly trading outlook based on current data and expert opinions. These are forecasts, not guarantees. Financial markets can change quickly due to global events or new information. Always trade responsibly, use proper risk management, and only invest what you can afford to lose.

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USD Uncertainty, Gold Signals & Major Pair Analysis