US Government Shutdown May Delay Key Data
If the US government shuts down, many important economic reports could be delayed. This includes the jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) due on October 3 and the CPI inflation report on October 15. These numbers might only be released about 10 days after the shutdown ends.
Because of this, traders and investors will look at private and alternative data to track the economy. Some important updates to watch are:
- Conference Board’s jobs index (Sept 30)
- ISM and S&P Global PMIs (Oct 1)
- Mortgage applications (Oct 1)
- ADP employment report
- Weekly jobless claims (Oct 2 and Oct 9)
- Industrial production (Oct 10)
Unemployment claims are still expected to come out, just like during the 2013 shutdown. But claims could rise if many federal workers are sent home without pay.
Later in October, reports like the small business survey, Fed regional surveys, and the housing index will also give clues about the US economy.
Impact:
If the shutdown happens, markets might depend more on private data. Delayed reports could make market direction and Fed policy harder to guess.