01 Key News Insights
Date: 12 November, Wednesday, 2025
Daily Economic Outlook:
Will 42-day US govt shutdow1n end today? Eyes on Democrats as House votes on Senate-approved bill
- The US government shutdown could end as soon as today as the House of Representatives is set to hold a vote on the bill approved by the Senate.
- The Republicans have a majority in the chamber.
US Supreme Court extends block on full SNAP payments amid shutdown talks
- The Supreme Court on Tuesday extended an order blocking full SNAP payments, amid signals that the government shutdown could soon end and food aid payments resume.
US Private Job Growth Falters in Late October
- US private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending October 25, 2025, indicating that the labor market lost momentum in the second half of the month compared with the first two weeks, as per ADP weekly report.
Japan Manufacturers’ Mood Hits Near 4-Year High
The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers rose to +17 in November 2025 from +8 in October, marking its strongest level since January 2022 as a weaker yen boosted global demand for cars and electronics.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- The US Dollar Index, started the day with a positive note, but failed to hold the levels of 99.65 and re-started a declining move.
- The DXY while writing this report falls below 99.50, with further downside moves expected on technical grounds
- However, the downside for DXY will remain limited due to hopes for the end of the US government shutdown.
AUD/ USD
- Australian Dollar extends its losses despite a cautious RBA policy stance.
- The AUD could regain its ground as RBA’s Hauser highlighted the need to maintain tight monetary conditions.
USD / CAD
- USD/CAD holds steady around 1.4010 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- BoC cut rates to 2.25% in October meet and signaled an end to the easing cycle.
JPY
- Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that she recently sees one-sided and rapid moves in the currency, adding that she will be closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
- As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.30% on the day at 154.50.
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
02 - Economic Calender
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: The primary trend of gold is bullish. After giving a bullish breakout of the symmetrical triangle, the prices jumped substantially high near 4150, exhausting the bulls significantly. The metal is now showing signs of corrective movements from near the current level (4120) towards the immediate support level (S1 = 4100).
Biasness: Gold will lack its positive traction amid bets of no more rate cuts by the Fed. Also easing economic concerns from the ending of the US government shutdown also going to weaken the commodity. The upbeat market mood and a modest USD uptick will also do little to dent the XAU/USD bullish tone.
Key Levels: R1- 4150 R2- 4185
S1- 4100 S2- 4065
Data Releases: There are no major data release today, however U.S. Senate on Monday evening approved a bill. If the House passes the bill, the 42 days long shutdown could reach will end and government could re-start the working at least till January.
Technical Analysis: The RSI is declines lower from the overbought zone & currently trends below 70.00 near 64.85, indicating bearishness in the yellow metal. The prices are also declining after testing the upper Bollinger band, signaling a potential reversal.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold goes above the crucial & immediate resistance level (R1 = 4150), then it could rise higher towards far resistance (4185).
While writing the report, gold is trading at 4120
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Crude oil prices are holding above the 200 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe, with immediate support near the 60.25 zone. A sustained close above the R1 level could drive further upside toward 62.40, indicating a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend.
Biasness: Crude oil prices remain under pressure, though a potential rebound appears to be taking shape. However, elevated inventories, concerns about an oversupplied market relative to demand, and persistent sanction risks continue to weigh on sentiments. Market focus now shifts to tomorrow’s crude oil inventory data for further guidance.
Key Levels: R1: 61.55 R2: 62.60
S1: 58.85 S2: 57.35
Data Releases: Last week’s crude oil inventory data exceeded both expectations and the prior week’s levels, pointing to softer demand relative to supply. This reinforces signs of near-term weakness, with tomorrow’s crude oil data likely to set the tone for market sentiment this week.
Technical Analysis: The price is holding above the 200 EMA, with EMA slope trending flat, indicating neutral to bullish tone.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil starts to close below the S1 of 58.80, it could signal bearishness.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 60.77
07 - EUR/USD
Overview: The EUR/USD pair continues to hold a bullish primary trend, forming higher highs and higher lows on the 4H chart. After breaking out yesterday, the price is currently retesting the breakout zone. The overall bias remains bullish, with potential buying opportunities likely around the London session open.
Biasness: The EUR/USD pair traded flat during the Asian session, supported by broad dollar strength. Upcoming German CPI and WPI data could introduce volatility; however, the near-term bias for the pair remains bullish.
Key Levels: R1: 1.1591 R2: 1.1638
S1: 1.1531 S2: 1.1468
Data Release: Today’s key events include the release of German CPI, WPI, and 30-year Bond Auction data. Additionally, speeches from FOMC members Williams, Paulson, and Waller are scheduled later in the evening, which could increase market volatility.
Technical Analysis: The price is holding above the 21 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe, with the EMA slope trending upward, indicating a bullish bias.
Alternative Scenario: If prices starts to close below 21 EMA on 1H timeframe & if it closes below S1 then we can plan short entries.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1578
08 - BTC/USD
Overview: The primary trend for BTCUSD remains bearish. On the 1-hour chart, prices are forming a rounding top pattern, and a breakdown below 101,900 could trigger further weakness.
Biasness: BTCUSD is trading around the 103,330 level and appears weak on the charts, with potential to test the 100,000 level. The dollar is expected to find support at current levels and move higher, given its negative correlation with Bitcoin.
Key Levels: R1: 107500 R2: 111280
S1: 102450 S2: 98950
Data Release: Bitcoin price today slips below $103K as the U.S. government reopening offers little relief. Additionally, China has accused the U.S. of stealing $13 billion worth of Bitcoin, further weighing on sentiment. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are underperforming compared to privacy-focused coins such as Zcash & Dash coin.
Technical Analysis The price is holding below the 21 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe, with the EMA slope trending downward, indicating a bearish bias.
Alternative Scenario: If prices starts to close above 21 EMA on 1H timeframe & if it closes above R1 then we can plan long entries.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 103330.
09 - DOW JONES
Overview: The Dow Jones maintains a bullish primary trend on the H4 chart. Prices have started showing minor weakness after showing substantial bullish rally since Friday. The index is currently trending close to the immediate resistance zone between 6850 & 6860. A bearish retracement from this levels will drive the index towards the daily pivotal level of 6815 or lower towards 6788.
Biasness: The S&P 500 cut losses to close higher Tuesday, as investors weighed up the likely end to the long-running government shutdown, though gains were held back by slip in Nvidia and other AI-related stocks.
Key Levels: R1: 6860 R2: 6900
S1: 6815 S2: 6788
Data Release: There are no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release today. However, traders remain cautious, awaiting 10-Year Note Auction
Technical Analysis: The RSI rose steeply in the previous session exhausting the bullish strength, and thus a retracement is expected. Although prices are trending in buying zone of Bollinger bands, but he overall band is changing its trajectory towards downside.
Alternative Scenario: If prices are able to breach the immediate resistance level (6860) and sustains higher in the buying zones of the indicators, then further bullishness can be observed.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 6845.
10 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
