01 Key News Insights
Date: 22 August, Friday, 2025
Daily Economic Outlook:
Today’s Key Data Events
- German GDP Data
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
Rate cut bets fall sharply ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
- Bets that US Fed will cut rates in September have dropped significantly, as markets prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
- Last week, traders were pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 bps cut.
- That is now down to 71.5 percent due to hotter-than-expected producer inflation data and some hawkish commentary from some Fed members.
Trump steps back from Russia and Ukraine peace talks for now.
- Donald Trump intends to leave Russia and Ukraine to organize a meeting between their leaders without directly playing a role for now, taking a step back from the negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Nvidia Crushes Between US-China Tariff Politics
- China is restricting sales of Nvidia’s H20 chip following remarks by a U.S. Commerce Secretary.
- This restriction could impact Nvidia’s sales prospects and the technological development landscape in China, potentially affecting market dynamics internationally.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is hovering around 98.8, holding above the key 98.7 (50% Fib) support after a strong breakout from its downtrend channel.
- Immediate resistance is seen at 99.0–99.1, and a sustained break above this could drive momentum toward 99.5, while failure to hold above 98.7 may trigger a pullback toward 98.3.
- With no major data releases today apart from Fed Chair Powell’s speech, intraday volatility could spike, where hawkish remarks may lift the dollar further, while dovish tones could pressure it back below support.
EUR/USD
- The Euro has retraced daily losses following an unexpected improvement in Eurozone’s manufacturing activity
- German and French PMI figures have also beaten expectations, providing a fresh boost to the Euro.
- Trump resumed his attacks on the Fed on Wednesday, calling for Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD has reached its three-month high at 1.3915 on Friday.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing a 74% chance of a September rate cut, against 82% on Wednesday.
- Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index climbed 0.7% in July, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% rise, after a 0.5% gain prior.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold continues to form lower lows and lower highs, confirming a bearish market structure. Prices are trading near a key resistance zone, facing repeated rejections. This highlights ongoing weakness and persistent bearish pressure.
Biasness: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled no rate cuts ahead, keeping interest rates elevated. Higher rates strengthen the U.S. Dollar, reducing demand for gold. As a result, gold faces sustained downside pressure against the dollar.
Key Levels: R1- 3350 R2- 3425
S1- 3300 S2- 3275
Data Releases: Fed Chairman Powell’s speech is scheduled for today, and traders will watch closely for any hints on future rate cuts. His remarks could trigger volatility in gold as markets react to potential shifts in monetary policy
Technical Analysis: RSI is hovering below 50 levels, reflecting weakening momentum. Prices have crossed below moving average, aligning with bearish price bias.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold goes above the crucial resistance level of 3350, it could signal bullishness.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3329.5
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Crude oil has broken out of a falling wedge pattern after a sharp decline and consolidation. Following a pullback, bullish candles are emerging, signaling renewed buying interest. This price action suggests the potential for further upward movement.
Biasness: WTI steadies as fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal keep risk premiums elevated. Ongoing military escalations further support crude prices. However, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and pressure over Russian imports add caution to the outlook.
Key Levels: R1: 64.00 R2: 66.00
S1: 62.00 S2: 60.00
Data Release: Markets await Fed Chairman Powell’s speech today, where guidance on rate cuts may be highlighted. Any policy signals could spark volatility in oil, influencing demand outlook and risk sentiment.
Indicator: The RSI is moving upward, suggesting buying interest is returning. The moving average is also giving support to prices, showing a bullish trend.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil breaks the crucial support level of 62, it could signal bearishness.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 63.50
07 - EUR/USD
Overview: The primary trend of EUR/USD remains bullish. On the 4H chart, prices breach down the descending triangle pattern, and are currently testing the immediate support level if breached, then further bearishness can be seen.
Biasness: Stronger U.S. PMI data boosted the dollar, pushing EUR/USD down 0.4% yesterday. The pair continues falling today as investors await Powell’s evening speech for clues on monetary policy direction.
Key Levels: R1: 1.1620 R2: 1.1680
S1: 1.1585 S2: 1.1530
Data Release: With no major data due today, focus shifts to evening speeches from Powell and Trump, which may provide insights into future monetary policy projections and influence market sentiment.
Indicator: The 12-period EMA is below the 52-period EMA, indicating a bearish trend.
Alternative Scenario: If prices are unable to breach the immediate support level and, simultaneously, the 12-period EMA rises above the 52-period EMA, then bullishness can be observed.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1588
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
