01 Key News Insights
Date: 13 October, Monday, 2025
Daily Economic Outlook:
Weekly Crucial Data Events: Oct 13 to Oct 17
Due to the US government shutdown, the data blackout continues.
1.OPEC Monthly Report – Monday
2.Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday
3.NY Fed Manufacturing Index – Wednesday
4.Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
5.NAHB Housing Market Index – Thursday
6.~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
Sentiment steadies after Trump cools rhetoric on China trade, gold at record highs
- World markets found steadier ground on Monday after being whipsawed by broadsides in the U.S.-China trade war, while gold hit new record highs in a sign that uncertainty remained high.
- While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1 and Beijing threatened countermeasures, he sounded more conciliatory on Sunday, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not want to “hurt” China.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is holding above the ascending trendline near 99.00, showing signs of strength after a brief pullback.
- The immediate resistance lies at 99.27, followed by a key level at 99.50 — a breakout above this could extend gains toward 99.75.
- RSI is recovering from mid-levels (~59), suggesting mild bullish momentum for the session.
- As no major macro data is due today, price action may remain range-bound between 99.00–99.50, with a bullish bias intact as long as the trendline support holds.
GBP/JPY:
- The Pound reached levels past 203.00 after bouncing at 201.85 lows on Friday.
- Growing political uncertainty in Japan is weighing on the Yen on Monday.
- GBP/JPY needs to break the 203.50 resistance to confirm a trade shift.
DOW JONES
- Dow Jones futures improve on the increased likelihood of further Fed rate cuts by year-end.
- US stock futures receive support due to moderating Trump’s remarks on China.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in nearly a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold continues its strong rally with no significant correction, recently reaching a new all-time high of 4,075, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. The metal has broken above the key resistance level of 4,060, suggesting the potential for further upside in the near term.
Biasness: Gold maintains a strong bullish outlook as safe-haven demand strengthens amid ongoing global political and economic uncertainty as U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, with President Trump warning of “massive” tariff hikes. Expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and robust central bank buying continue to support prices.
Key Levels: R1- 4150.00 R2- 4180.00
S1- 4060.00 S2- 4000.00
Data Releases: With U.S. markets closed today in observance of Columbus Day, trading volumes in gold may remain lower than usual, potentially leading to subdued price action.
Technical Analysis: RSI is moving up above neutral levels, confirming strong bullish momentum. 21 EMA is also broken to the upside signaling strength in gold.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold goes below the crucial support level of 4060, it could signal bearishness.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 4067
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Crude oil prices struggled to break above the key resistance level of 62 and faced strong rejection, leading to a breakdown below the important support level of 60 along with trendline acting as dynamic support. Prices are now retesting this trendline, and if they fail to reclaim it, further bearish movement may follow.
Biasness: Crude oil remains under bearish pressure as easing geopolitical tensions and rising global supply weigh on prices. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire, coupled with increasing Russian output and growing U.S. inventories, signals weakening demand conditions and the potential for further downside in the near term.
Key Levels: R1: 60.00 R2: 62.00
S1: 58.00 S2: 56.00
Data Releases: As the U.S. observes Columbus Day, Traders should remain cautious as lower market participation could result in reduced volatility for crude oil prices.
Technical Analysis: RSI has started moving below 50 levels, reflecting selling strength. Additionally, the price has broken below the 21-day EMA, further supporting a bearish bias.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil breaks the crucial resistance level of 60, it could signal bullishness.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 59.60
07 - EUR/USD
Overview: The primary trend of EUR/USD remains bearish. On the 4H chart, prices continue to move within a falling wedge. After failing to breach the 1.1550 support level on Friday, prices are now sustaining above the pivot and testing the immediate resistance, a breakout of which could indicate further bullishness.
Biasness: EUR/USD trades in a narrow range above 1.1600 on Monday, with the US Dollar pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions. However, political uncertainty in France limits the Euro’s upside potential in the near term.
Key Levels: R1: 1.1630 R2: 1.1660
S1: 1.1550 S2: 1.1500
Data Release: No major data releases are scheduled for today, except for U.S. construction spending and speeches by German Buba Vice Presidents Buch and Balz in the evening. Meanwhile, updates on U.S.-China trade tensions and France’s political situation could further influence market movements.
Technical Analysis: The 12-period EMA is rising towards 52-period EMA, indicating bullishness.
Alternative Scenario: If prices are able to breach the immediate support level and along with this if 12 period EMA sustain below the 52 period then bearishness can be seen.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1600
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
