Blog
Date - 05th, February, Wednesday, 2025
01 - Key News Insights
Drone Strike Ignites Fire at Oil Depot in Russia’s Krasnodar:
- A drone strike hit an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, causing a fire that has now been extinguished.
- Ukraine has targeted multiple Russian energy facilities, including a Volgograd oil refinery and the Astrakhan gas plant.
Trump Plans to Take Over Gaza, Build ‘Riviera of the Middle East:
- Trump suggested the U.S. take over Gaza and turn it into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” breaking from past U.S. policy.
- Saudi Arabia and Hamas condemned the remarks, warning they could destabilize the region.
Trump, DeepSeek Highlighted at Paris AI Summit:
- World leaders, including the U.S. and China, will meet next week to discuss AI safety and development.
- The summit builds on last year’s discussions on AI risks, now focusing on practical applications.
Yuan Drops on Trade War Fears; Yen Rises on Rate Hike Bets:
- The yuan fell as a new Sino-U.S. trade war rattled Chinese markets, with the dollar rising over 0.5% against it.
- The yen surged on growing expectations of more Bank of Japan rate hikes, while the PBOC set a stronger yuan midpoint to limit further decline.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- The DXY trades around 107.85 amid renewed trade tensions and market volatility.
- Drop in job openings hints at labor market softening, weighing on the dollar.
- Investors remain cautious but less fearful, with VIX declining to 16.89.
EUR/USD.
- The pair consolidates near its weekly high, lacking strong directional momentum.
- The US Dollar struggles to attract buyers due to increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
- Concerns over potential Trump trade tariffs and a dovish ECB limit the Euro’s upside potential.
GBP/USD
- The pair struggles to extend its recent rally and hovers near a one-week high, staying below the 1.2500 mark.
- The 1.2500 level acts as a barrier, limiting further upside during the Asian session.
- Persistent US Dollar selling helps prevent a deeper pullback in the pair.
USD/JPY
- The pair continues its downward move, approaching the 153.00 level in Asian trading.
- Rising Japanese real wages in December fuel expectations of further rate hikes, strengthening the Yen.
- Broad US Dollar softness and a decline in US Treasury yields add pressure on the pair.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
- By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
- That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
- In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
- Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher).
- Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Primary trend is bullish and made new all time high 2661 gold price has shown bullish rally so a small correction could anticipate the further buying opportunities but price might correct till 250 and then mark another new high.
Biasness: Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid renewed US-China trade war fears. Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and further lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
Key Levels: R1- 2865 R2- 2875
S1- 2840 S2- 2800
Technical Analysis: RSI is above 50 heading down and 50 EMA bullish suggest strength price Bearish divergence has identified in chart so bearishness is expected till 2790.
Data Releases: ADP NFP is due 148k expected and PMI 54.2 is expected both reading is more than previous if data came positive so gold price may more bullish.
Alternative Scenario: A selling opportunity may arise if the price approaches $2820, especially if any shifts in market sentiment or economic data cause gold to fall too quickly.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 2711.
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Oil is trading downwards overall. After a sharp rise from the support level of 70.50, prices are trading in a range of 72.70 and 72.10. If it breaks the psychological level of 72.00, then oil prices may fall.
Biasness: Oil prices slid on Wednesday as rising stockpiles in the U.S. and market worries about a new Sino-U.S. trade war offset Trump’s renewed push to eliminate Iranian crude exports.
Key Levels: R1: 73.50 R2: 74.50
S1: 71.70 S2: 71.20
Indicator: Oil prices are trading below the middle Bollinger Band at 72.17, indicating weakness.
Data Release: Traders are waiting for the Crude Oil Inventories data. If the figure comes more than expected(2.4M), it indicates rise in stockpiles and oil prices may fall.
Alternative Scenario: If Oil breaches an immediate resistance mark of 73.50 and trade above the middle Bollinger band, then a short term bullish view can be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 72.15
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting a bullish primary trend. On the 1-hour chart, prices have tested the support at 153.10 after falling sharply multiple times. These are rejections which means prices are failing to breach the support which is a sign of reversal. Therefore bullishness is expected.
Biasness: The Pound Sterling drops to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar as investors worry that a trade war between the US and China could intensify. China retaliates to US President Trump’s tariffs and announces levies on various imports from the US. This week, investors will keenly focus on the BoE’s policy decision and the US NFP data.
Key Levels: R1: 153.85 R2: 154.34
S1: 153.10 S2: 152.68
Indicator: Traders should wait for the candles to form above 9 EMA and RSI to go above level 50 to confirm bullishness.
Macro-Economic Factors: Traders are awaiting US manufacturing and services PMI and prices. If the data comes more than expected then it will be bullish for USD and USDJPY pair as well.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the support at 153.10 then bearishness is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 153.16
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
