Blog
Date - 23th, December, Monday, 2024
01 - Key News Insights
Lagarde says ECB very close to reaching its inflation goal:
- ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the eurozone is “very close” to meeting the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
- Lagarde indicated further interest rate cuts could occur if inflation continues to ease.
Goldman Sachs Revises Fed, GDP, and Inflation Forecasts Amid Global Economic Changes:
- Goldman Sachs revised its projections, delaying the first rate cut to March 2025 and expecting a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%.
- U.S. GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.6% in 2025, with unemployment dropping to 4.0% and core inflation easing to 2.4%.
- Global GDP growth is projected at 2.7% in 2025, though challenges in the Eurozone and China could limit momentum.
Trump Vows Anti-Drug Ad Campaign:
- Trump to launch anti-drug ad campaign focusing on fentanyl’s physical impact.
- Campaign aims to highlight drugs’ effects on appearance (skin, teeth, etc.).
Nvidia Plans to Set Up Taiwan Headquarters, Reports Say:
- NVIDIA plans to build a new regional headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan.
- NVIDIA aims to expand its presence, including a new R&D hub and 1,000 new hires.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is trading around 107.60, reflecting a slight increase from the previous session.
- DXY has support at 107.40 and resistance at 108.10, with a break above 108.10 potentially signaling further strength for the dollar.
- Recent PCE inflation data showed a 0.1% rise, slightly below expectations, easing inflation concerns but not drastically changing the outlook.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD rises for the third straight day, trading near 1.0440 in Monday’s Asian session.
- The pair remains bearish, following a descending channel pattern.
- Despite recent gains, the overall bias points to continued downward pressure.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD trades in a tight range above mid-1.2500s during the Asian session.
- The pair rebounded from 1.2475, its lowest level since May, on Friday.
- Fundamental factors suggest caution before expecting further upside.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY stays strong above mid-156.00s as the new week begins.
- Uncertainty about BoJ rate hikes and improved risk sentiment pressure the Japanese Yen.
- The US Dollar regains strength after Friday’s profit-taking dip.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
- By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
- That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
- In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
- Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher).
- Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold’s primary trend sideways, after the downfall gold price recovered suggesting bullishness in H1 after double bottom pattern gold price suggesting further bullishness prices currently hovering in range of 2630-2620 which is acting as resistance and support respectively if prices breaks the resistance then further buying is expected.
Biasness: Gold prices extended gains at the start of the week, continuing their rebound from a one-month low reached last Thursday. Heightened geopolitical risks, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and concerns over a potential trade war, bolstered the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. These factors have reinforced investor demand for gold as a hedge against global instability.
Key Levels: R1- 2630 R2- 2645
S1- 2620 S2- 2600
Technical Analysis: RSI is above 50 heading up suggesting strength in price and 50 EMA bullish suggesting bullishness in price so the breakout of 2630 resistance could strengthen the price.
Data Releases: CB confidence is due for the day 112.9 is expected if figure came negative then expected so gold price will become bullish.
Alternative Scenario: If gold price moves down or breaches the support level at 2600 and the failure of the pattern could change the perspective and then bearishness can be expected.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 2628
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: The major trend of Oil is downtrend. On the 4 hour chart, oil has found support near 68.40. It has broken upward of inside candle pattern and might rise to the next resistance at 70.50.
Biasness: Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. inflation came in lower than expected, boosting hopes for more policy easing. However, concerns about a potential oversupply next year kept gains limited.
Key Levels: R1: 70.50 R2:71.00
S1: 68.85 S2: 68.40
Indicator: Oil prices are trading above the middle Bollinger Band at 69.45, indicating strength. It may rise to test the upper Bollinger band at 70.50.
Data Release: Traders are waiting for the CB Consumer Confidence data today. If the figure comes in less than expected (112.9), then USD may be negatively impacted and oil prices may rise.
Alternative Scenario: If Oil breaches an immediate support mark of 68.85 and trade below the middle Bollinger band, then a short term bearish view can be expected.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 69.60
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The primary trend for USD/JPY remains bullish. On the 4-hour chart, prices tested the support at 156.06 while going down and now is approaching immediate resistance at 157.06, therefore bullishness is expected.
Biasness: USD/JPY holds firm above mid-156.00s at the start of a new week on Monday. Doubts over when the Bank of Japan could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven Japanese Yen while the US Dollar regains its footing after Friday’s profit-taking slide.
Key Levels: R1: 157.06 R2:157.70
S1: 156.06 S2: 153.23
Indicator: The RSI has remained in the buying zone and has consistently failed to drop below the 50 level into the selling territory. Additionally, price candles are trading above the 9 EMA, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Macro-Economic Factors: No major data releasing today.
Alternative Scenario: Prices should breach the support at 156.06 level for prices to go in downward direction.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 156.77
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
