01 Key News Insights
Date: 30 September, Tuesday, 2025
Daily Economic Outlook:
Economic Highlights – Oct 01, 2025:
- Today’s key events include Eurozone CPI data and the U.S. ADP nonfarm employment change & Manufacturing PMI.
- It’s possible that government‐released economic reports could be delayed or cancelled if the U.S. government is shut down, especially if the agencies responsible for those releases are furloughed.
US government shutdown begins after GOP funding bill fails in Senate
- A U.S. government shutdown took effect from midnight, Tuesday, after an eleventh-hour Republican funding bill failed to gain enough votes in the Senate.
- Government agencies will now have to discontinue all but essential activities, heralding disruptions in several services across the country, ranging from air traffic control to disaster relief.
Trump, Netanyahu back Gaza war plan; Hamas asked to free hostages in 72 hrs
- The 20-point plan is aimed at ending Israel’s war in Gaza and establishing a temporary governing board in Palestine, to be headed by Trump and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Associated Press reported.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is trading near 97.48, slipping below the 97.70 support (Fib 0.382), showing short-term weakness.
- Next downside levels lie at 97.42 (Fib 0.5) and 97.14 (Fib 0.618) if selling pressure continues.
- Price action is within a descending channel, suggesting bearish bias unless a breakout above 97.8 occurs.
- Crucial events (ADP Jobs & Manufacturing PMI) could trigger volatility — strong data may lift DXY back toward 98.0, while weak numbers may deepen the decline.
GBP/USD:
- The Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3480 against the US Dollar as the Greenback weakens after the government shutdown.
- BoE’s Breeden warns of economic risks and advocates interest rate cuts.
- US private employers are expected to have added 50K fresh workers in September.
GBP/JPY
- The Pound extends losses to levels near 198.00, depreciating more than 1% so far this week.
- Hawkish comments by BoJ policymakes are keeping the Yen buoyed.
- The Pound suffers on concerns aout UK’s fscal health and growing political uncertainty.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, consistently forming bullish structures. Prices rejected from 3870 level, & found strong support at 3800, which pushed prices higher to new ATHs. Again profit booking is expected & prices might correct, if it falls below 0.618 fib extension (3887). A correction till 3850 might be expected if prices fall below immediate support of 3887.
Biasness: Gold prices surged to record highs as safe-haven demand strengthened amid the U.S. government shutdown. Political deadlock in Washington pressured the dollar, however, the shutdown has now seems to be factored and profit booking might begin.
Key Levels: R1- 3900.00 R2- 3912.75
S1- 3887.00 S2- 3850.00
Data Releases: Although U.S. Manufacturing PMI data is scheduled for release today, the ongoing government shutdown may cause delays, keeping traders cautious as gold remains sensitive to uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: RSI is moving in the oversold zone. Prices are also close to upper Bollinger band.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold goes above the recent ATHs, then it could further continue bullish rally.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3893
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Crude oil faced a sharp rejection from the 66 level, triggering a strong bearish move that broke below the important 64 support. This breakdown shifted the primary trend to bearish, with prices now consolidating just above the 62 support zone. A break below 62 could open the door for further downside pressure.
Biasness: Crude oil prices may slip as concerns about rising supply weigh on sentiment, with OPEC+ expected to approve additional output and Iraq resuming exports via Turkey. Geopolitical risk premiums eased, while higher U.S. imports added further downside pressure.
Key Levels: R1: 64.00 R2: 66.00
S1: 62.00 S2: 60.00
Data Releases: The Manufacturing PMI data is due today, but the U.S. government shutdown could postpone its release, adding to uncertainty and potential volatility in crude oil prices.
Technical Analysis: RSI is moving below 50 levels, reflecting selling strength. Additionally, the price has broken below the 21-day EMA, further supporting a bearish bias.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil breaks the crucial resistance level of 64, it could signal bullish.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 62.75
07 - EUR/USD
Overview: The primary trend of EUR/USD is bearish, with prices on the 4H chart trading within a falling wedge. Currently testing the wedge’s upper border, failure to breach it could trigger further downside continuation.
Biasness: EUR/USD climbed above 1.1750 in early European trading on Wednesday, supported by renewed U.S. dollar weakness amid the government shutdown. Traders now await preliminary EU inflation data and the ADP jobs report for fresh directional cues.
Key Levels: R1: 1.1765 R2: 1.1820
S1: 1.1730 S2: 1.1690
Data Release: Today’s key events include Eurozone CPI data and the U.S. ADP nonfarm employment change. These releases could provide fresh direction for EUR/USD, and if both come out against expectations, the pair may see further downside pressure.
Technical Analysis: The 12-period EMA is currently above the 52-period EMA; if it falls below, then further bearishness will be confirmed.
Alternative Scenario: If prices are able to breach the immediate resistance level, and along with this if the 12-period EMA sustains above the 52-period, then bullishness can be seen.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.1770
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
