01 Key News Insights
Date: 1 August, Tuesday, 2025
Daily Economic Outlook:
Today’s Important Economic Data & Events:
Friday
1.Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and PMI
Yesterday’s Important Economic Event Update
1.June PCE Price Inflation (Fed’s preferred inflation measure) rose to 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%.-
2.The Core PCE Price Index also rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%.
3.The PCE inflation has been rising for 2 consecutive months.
4.Now Powell has all the grounds to not cut the rates, pointing to higher inflation.
Trump v/s Powel
1.President Trump again targeted Fed Chair Powell on holding interest rates for the 5th-straight time: Trump accused Powell of being “too late, too angry, too stupid, and too political.”
Tariff War: August 1st tariff deadline is already expired
What’s happening: Trump sets 35% tariff rate on Canada; 25% on India. Tariffs rise from the 10% baseline. Mexico & China gets 90-day extension. Copper, de minimis imports face changes
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY is consolidating near 99.60 after testing the psychological 100.00 level, facing resistance.
- The index had a sharp rally from 97.70 support but now shows early signs of retracement, with key support seen at 99.25 and stronger support at 98.90.
- A sustained move above 100.00 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially targeting 100.50–101.00, while failure to hold current levels could trigger a correction toward 98.90–98.50.
- Traders will focus heavily on today’s US labor market data – Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and PMI – which could drive decisive moves.
USD/JPY
- JPY attracts some safe-haven flows as trade jitters weigh on the risk sentiment.
- The BoJ’s dovish tilt on Thursday could cap the JPY and lend support to the USD/JPY pair.
- Reduced September Fed rate cut bets favor the USD bulls ahead of the crucial US NFP report.
EUR/GBP
- The Euro crawls higher against the Pound but remains capped below 0.8665.
- UK and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone HICP figures might determine the pair’s direction later today.
- Heightened hopes of a BoE rate cut in August are increasing bearish pressure on the GBP.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2. By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3. That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4. In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5. Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold has rebounded from a well-defined demand zone after repeated rejections, suggesting that buyers are stepping back in. The recent price behavior shows early signs of a potential reversal, with higher lows forming on the chart.
Biasness: Gold holds near key levels as market brace for US jobs report, with focus on macroeconomic uncertainty. Trump’s global tariff baseline adds to geopolitical risks, which could renew safe-haven demand.
Key Levels: R1- 3350 R2- 3425
S1- 3275 S2- 3200
Technical Analysis: Momentum indicators are turning favorable, with RSI recovering from oversold conditions. Additionally, price is approaching the 21 EMA.
Data Releases: Gold could see sharp moves today as both Nonfarm Payroll and ISM Manufacturing data are due. If the data weakens the dollar, gold may rise, but strong figures could keep pressure on the metal.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold goes below the crucial resistance level of 3275, it could signal bearishness.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3292
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Oil prices have broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, forming a clear bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. The breakout above previous resistance levels and strong respect for trendline support suggest that buyers are in control, and further upside could be seen if momentum continues.
Biasness: Oil is on track for strong weekly gains, driven by ongoing supply concerns despite tariff-related demand fears. President Trump’s new tariff measures increase geopolitical uncertainty, supporting crude prices.
Key Levels: R1: 71.50 R2: 76.50
S1: 65.50 S2: 60.50
Indicator: The RSI is holding above the 50 level, indicating bullish strength, while the price remains comfortably above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing short-term positive momentum.
Data Release: Oil prices may react sharply today with the release of Nonfarm Payroll and U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count. Strong economic signals could boost demand outlook, while weaker numbers might dampen sentiment temporarily.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil breaks the crucial support level of 66, it could signal bearishness.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 69.00
07 - EUR/USD
Overview: USD/JPY remains in a strong uptrend, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. After reaching a multi-month high, the pair pulled back slightly. As long as this structure holds, the pair is likely to resume its upward path.
Biasness: USD/JPY remains supported despite a slight retreat, as the BOJ’s reluctance to commit to rate hikes keeps the yen under pressure. The US Dollar is gaining strength, boosted by the Fed’s hawkish tone.
Key Levels: R1: 151.00 R2: 152.50
S1: 149.50 S2: 148.00
Indicator: RSI is hovering just below overbought territory, signaling strong momentum. The price also stays firmly above the 21 EMA, maintaining a solid bullish outlook.
Data Release: Today’s Nonfarm Payroll and ISM Manufacturing data releases are expected to bring significant volatility to USD/JPY. Traders will watch closely as strong readings could boost the dollar, while weaker data may trigger a pullback.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the support of 149.5 along with the EMA, then bearish move is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 150.58
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
