Date: 30 May, Friday 2025
01 Key News Insights
Geopolitics
- U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg acknowledged Russia’s concerns over NATO’s eastward expansion as fair, affirming that Ukraine’s NATO membership is not on the table. He emphasized upcoming peace talks in Istanbul, while criticizing Russia’s aggression
- A U.S.-backed Gaza ceasefire plan proposes a 60-day truce, the exchange of 28 Israeli hostages for 1,236 Palestinian prisoners, and phased Israeli military withdrawal, Israel has accepted the proposal.
Global Markets
- Asian stocks declined Friday as Trump’s trade tariffs were reinstated by an appeals court, reigniting fears of prolonged U.S.-China tensions. Chinese markets led the losses after talks with Washington.
- NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang highlighted four key AI growth drivers: surging demand for reasoning AI, enterprise adoption, industrial AI expansion, and the global boost from revoked diffusion rules.
Crucial Data Today:
- Today’s Core PCE Price Index m/m data is set to be released during the NY session and is expected to show a slight uptick, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, any upside surprise may reinforce expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- The US Dollar Index rises after a federal court blocks Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, easing trade-related fears and boosting investor sentiment.
- US GDP Annualized is projected to decline by 0.3% in Q1, signaling persistent economic slowdown concerns amid weak consumer and business activity.
- FOMC Minutes reveal officials favor a cautious stance on rate changes, citing elevated economic uncertainty and need for clearer data before further action.
USD/JPY
- GBP/USD dips to around 1.3480 as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on improved U.S. economic data, including a jump in Consumer Confidence to 98.0 in May.
- Traders await the FOMC meeting minutes later Wednesday for further cues on U.S. monetary policy direction.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD trades slightly lower near mid-1.1300s in Asia, down 0.15%, after rebounding from a one-and-a-half week low of 1.1200.
- The pair shows mild bearish bias but finds support, indicating limited downside momentum despite failure to build on the prior day’s strong recovery.
- Market participants await further catalysts, with the pair holding steady amid cautious sentiment and light economic calendar in the Asian session.
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
1.Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
2.By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
3.That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
4.In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
5.Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher). Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
a.For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.
b.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
c.To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: Gold is trading in a range between 3,275 and 3,345 after a brief false breakout below support. The pair has formed a higher low, suggesting a possible retest of 3,345 resistance. A sustained break above 3,345 could aim for the next major resistance near 3,415.
Biasness: Despite temporary support from an appeals court reinstating Trump’s tariff agenda, gold was unable to recover from earlier losses. Dollar strength, driven by upbeat economic data and Treasury yield, undercut metal prices.
Key Levels: R1- 3345 R2- 3415
S1- 3275 S2- 3210
Technical Analysis: The price is currently trading below the short-term moving averages, MACD is showing convergence with a possible bullish crossover forming, signaling waning bearish momentum.
Data Releases: Markets now focus on April’s PCE Price Index, which could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. Any upside surprise in PCE may add further pressure to gold prices via a stronger dollar.
Alternative Scenario: If Gold move above the crucial resistance level of 3345, it could signal short-term bullishness
While writing the report, gold is trending at 3297.
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Crude oil faced rejection near the 62.876 resistance and sharply dropped back toward the 61.000 support level. The price is now consolidating just above the S1 support zone after a failed bullish breakout. Continued pressure below 61.000 may lead to a further decline toward 58.500 support.
Biasness: The prospect of a larger-than-expected production increase from OPEC+ has pressured oil prices, signaling continued oversupply concerns. The temporary reinstatement of Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners adds fresh uncertainty, keeping demand outlook fragile.
Key Levels: R1: 62.8 R2:65. S1: 60.5 S2: 58.5
Indicator: Crude oil is trading below the short-term moving averages, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. MACD is showing a bearish crossover below the zero line, indicating negative momentum.
Data Release: JPMorgan analysts highlighted that global oil demand has expanded by around 400,000 barrels per day this month, below the expected 650,000 bpd pace. While U.S. consumption showed strength over the holiday, ongoing trade restrictions and recession fears cloud the medium-term outlook.
Alternative Scenario: If crude oil breaks the crucial resistance level of 62.8, it could signal further bullishness.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 61.2
07 - USD JPY
Overview: The pair experienced a pullback from the 146.000 resistance level and found support near 143.000 before attempting to recover price may break 144.500 zone, which previously acted as a support-turn-resistance.
Biasness: The Japanese Yen strengthened for a second consecutive day, supported by strong domestic inflation data and renewed safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties. Tokyo’s consumer inflation figures surpassed expectations,
Key Levels: R1: 146.00 R2: 147.60
S1: 144.50 S2: 143.00
Indicator: MACD shows weakening bullish momentum with the histogram in decline and signal lines potentially crossing downward. The price is trying to regain the mid-band of the envelope and the moving averages, suggesting a possible shift in short-term trend.
Data Release: Japan’s consumer price index data showed headline inflation in Tokyo exceeded 3%, well above the BoJ’s 2% target, with core inflation at 3.6% year-on-year. Retail sales also improved by 3.3% in April, supporting expectations for sustained consumption growth.
Alternative Scenario: If prices breach the resistance of 144.50 then bullish move is expected.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 144.01.
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
