Date - 06th, September, Friday, 2024
01 - Key News Insights
The Dollar Index (DXY)
- US Dollar gives up further ground as markets gear for NFPs readings.
- With the US economic outlook mixed, signs of cooling in the labor market are making investors put some bets on a larger cut in September..
- The dollar index remains close to three-week lows after losing nearly 1% last week due to soft US economic data.
- Overall, the psychological resistance level of 105.0 will be crucial. If prices crosses this level and sustains, then it will rise higher, otherwise lower support levels could be witnessed.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD holds above 1.1100 ahead of US jobs report.
- The Euro draws support from easing fiscal concerns after the unexpected French election results while the US Dollar awaits Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for fresh cues on the policy outlook.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3200 as focus shifts to NFP
- The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.3180 on Friday during the Asian trading hours.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD consolidates around 1.3500, all eyes on US/Canadian employment data.
- On the other hand, the speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut additional interest rates this year might undermine the Loonie and cap USD/CAD’s downside.
US job growth seen accelerating
- The US economy is projected to add 160K jobs in August 2024, more than 114K in July and the unemployment rate is expected to edge lower to 4.2% from 4.3% which was the highest since October of 2021.
- Wages likely rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly more than 0.2% in July, pushing the yearly gain slightly up to 3.7% from 3.6% which was the lowest since May 2021.
- August figures are likely to indicate a stabilization in the labor market in August, a continued slowdown is expected. The average monthly payroll growth for this year has been 203K, compared to 251K in 2023 and 377K
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate data ahead
- Investors await key U.S. employment data releases this week, including the ADP National Employment Report and weekly jobless claims.
- July ADP data showed lower-than-expected payroll growth, and initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts.
- The primary focus will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with economists predicting a rise of 164,000 jobs in August.
Oil set for sharply weekly loss
- WTI crude oil futures traded around $69.4 per barrel on Friday, poised to decline sharply over the week due to demand concerns from major oil markets.
- Recent data from China and the US revealed weakness in their manufacturing sectors, heightening fears of slowing demand
02 - Economic Calender
03 - Previous Day Performance
04 - Instructions/Guidelines for executing suggested trade
- Close your trades within 8-10 hours or before 6:30 PM UTC (midnight IST), regardless of profit/ loss.
- By chance, if you face losses in your “Primary Trade”, the “Alternative Call” is designed to recover those losses.
- That’s why, always place the “Alternative call” alongside the “Primary Call”.
- In case the “Alternative or Recovery Call” doesn’t get triggered the same day, a new call (or signal) will be provided the following day.
- Generally, the Global Market Outlook Report includes signals with a higher reward-to-risk ratio (from 2:1 and higher).
- Therefore, consider booking partial profits in steps as follows:
For example, if the reward is two times the risk (or 2:1), consider booking half (or 50%) of the profit when levels reach a 1:1 ratio, and maintain the remaining position.Then, when prices reach twice the risk (2:1), book the remaining 50% position.
To make this process seamless and smooth, consider placing two calls simultaneously with the same Stop-Loss (SL) and Entry-Level but different Target-Levels.
Note: These guidelines aim to optimize your trading strategy while managing risks effectively.
05 - Gold Analysis
Overview: The primary trend of gold is bullish. On the 4H chart, prices have been moving within a range of 2526.87 to 2473.217 since mid-August. After bouncing from the strong support level of 2473.21, prices have been rising since Wednesday and are currently trading at 2518.86, within the range.
Biasness: Gold prices are currently moving upwards and are expected to reach 2526.87 before likely falling again, as they continue to move within a defined range.
Key Levels: R1- 2526.88 R2- 2530.00
S1-25 07.38 S2- 2473.22
Indicator Analysis: The Bollinger band is flat sliding sideways. The prices are trading below the upper Bollinger band and expected to fall after testing the level of upper Bollinger band at 2526.87.
Data Releases: U.S data including nonfarm payroll & unemployment rate is awaited today. A rise in nonfarm payroll and a fall in unemployment rate will boost US dollar and will prove bearish for the yellow metal.
Alternative Scenario: If gold price moves up or breaches the immediate resistance at 2526.88 level then bullishness can be expected and gold may reach higher resistance levels.
While writing the report, gold is trending at 2518.86.
06 - Crude Oil
Overview: Oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday, extending a 4% drop from the previous day, driven by expectations of a resolution to Libya’s export-hindering political dispute and concerns over weak global demand. Sluggish economic indicators from China and the U.S. added further downward pressure.
Overview: The primary trend of crude oil is bullish. Oil has breached the 26 EMA on 4H chart and trading below the same. A bearish order block (73.80-74.60) is identified, prices are expect to test the order block.
Biasness: US crude Oil is trading around $68.85 on Thursday. WTI price remains under selling pressure and hits the lowest level since December 13, 2023, due to a negative outlook about oil demand in the coming months.
Key Levels:
R1: 71.80 R2:73.80
S1: 69.10 S2: 68.00
Indicator: RSI is in a oversold region, hovering around 26 level. Prices may increase once the RSI breaches 40 level.
Data Release: U.S. crude oil inventories data is due today. If data comes higher than expected (-0.600 M) then it is bearish for oil prices.
Alternative Scenario: If oil breaches an immediate support level of 69.00 then prices may turn towards downside.
While writing the report, Oil is trading at 70.00
07 - GBP USD
Overview: The primary trend of GBP/USD is bullish. Prices are consolidating ahead of Non-farm data. A bearish order block(1.3230-1.3564) is identified. Prices are expected to test the order block once the 1.3495 level is breached.
Biasness: The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.3180 on Friday during the Asian trading hours. The persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness provides some support to the major pair. Market players will closely monitor the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is due later on Friday.
Key Levels: R1:1.3233 R2:1.3264
S1:1.3150 S2:1.3085
Indicator: RSI is showing strength hovering above 60 level. 26 EMA is acting as a strong support, prices are trading above 26 EMA indicating bullishness.
Macro-Economic Factors: Traders awaits Non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate on Friday. Data lesser than expected (164k) is bullish for the currency pair.
Alternative Scenario: GBPUSD could face selling pressure if 26 EMA support is breached.
While writing the report, the pair is trending at 1.3173
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
Safe trading,
Market Investopedia Ltd
